We’ve seen Woody’s origins tale in Toy Story 2, Buzz Lightyear’s in spinoff Lightyear, and all the toys nearly getting incinerated in Toy Story 3, but the fifth time around, it’s Jessie’s story.
In an already vibrant summer marketplace which is at a near $1.6 billion in North America, the best since 2019 per Rentrak, Disney Pixar’s Toy Story 5 will keep this bull box office season going with what’s expected to be a 2026 domestic as well as franchise best start of $140M at 4,425 theaters. Of course, Toy Story 5 will have the action figure kung-fu grip of all PLFs and Imax. Worldwide, though, the Andrew Stanton directed fifthquel is expected to be a record start for the franchise, but a second best 2026 bow globally with $275M, $135M of that coming from an 87% footprint abroad including China. Japan is going later on July 3 and Germany is going late on July 23 after Illumination/Universal’s Minions & Monsters (where that slapstick animated comedy rallies). Germans prefer their Minions over heartwarming toys.
Year-to-date, the best global and domestic opening by a MPA title belongs to Illumination/Nintendo/Universal’s Super Mario Galaxy Movie which respectively minted $372.5M WW and a 3-day domestic of $131.7M ( $190.8M 5-day). China’s Pegasus 3 with a Tuesday-Sunday take of $393M, is essentially the year’s best global opening at the B.O.
At the domestic B.O., Incredibles 2 still holds the record for the best Pixar opening ever at $182.6M, however, worldwide in like-for-likes that record goes to 2024’s Inside Out 2 at $384M WW ($230M Int’l, $154M domestic). The previous record opening for a Toy Story film was 2019’s Toy Story 4 both domestic ($120.9M) and worldwide ($249M in like-for-likes). Looking back, that was a great opening, but at the time it came in under projections which were wild at $160M stateside and $260M WW.
Why the slightly lower domestic forecast for Toy Story 5 from $150M to $140M? That’s because presales at $25M are slightly ahead of Super Mario Galaxy at the same point in time, ahead of Zootopia 2 ($100.2M 3-day, $158.8M 5-day), but behind Moana 2 ($139.7M 3-day, $225.4M 5-day). A lot of presales are on the Juneteenth holiday this Friday, which is the swing factor: It’s bound to be a bigger day than usual at the B.O., the question is what the hold is on Saturday.
First choice is best with women under 25, but strong across the board for the fifthquel. It’s traditional (except with Toy Story 4) for Pixar to have a theatrical release over Father’s Day weekend. In the case of Toy Story which skews more female, it will hold in its Saturday to Sunday ease, though not as big as a young boys skewing movie such as Incredible 2 (-11%). The female skewing Inside Out 2 eased -23% between its Saturday and Father’s Day Sunday.
Critical reviews on Rotten Tomatoes so far are very good for Toy Story 5 at 93% certified fresh, though lowest in the franchise following Toy Story and Toy Story 2 (both 100%), Toy Story 3 (98%) and Toy Story 4 (97%). All the previous Toy Story pics received A CinemaScores with the exception of Toy Story 2 which was an A+. Stanton is part of the Pixar posse having directed Wall-E, Finding Nemo and Finding Dory, and having co-directed A Bug’s Life, but this is his first Toy Story.
Previews start at 2PM in U.S. and Canada on Thursday.
Overseas, the riches for Toy Story 5 are expected to be in English-speaking territories, Latin America and France. Not so much Asia. China posted a $13M opening for Toy Story 4 in reported while Toy Story 3 bowed to $14M in the Middle Kingdom. In like-for-likes Toy Story 3 posted an international opening of $98M while Toy Story 4 was $128M.
Hugh Jackman in ‘The Death of Robin Hood‘
A24
Elsewhere on North American marquees, there’s arthouse counterprogramming with A24’s Michael Sarnoski directed, Hugh Jackman and Jodie Comer starring The Death of Robin Hood which is booked at 1,760 theaters with an eye in the single million digits. Critics are at 78% fresh for the older guy skewing period drama which follows the dude who steals from the rich and gives to the poor. In this version, Robin is severely injured and in the hands of a mysterious woman who is offering a chance at salvation. A24 took domestic on this $20M production for around $4M. Sarnoski shot in 35MM in Ireland (which has excellent film tax credits around 30%-40%).
NEON has their $10M+ Sundance global acquisition, Leviticus, opening in the low single digits at 1,075 theaters. Reviews for the Adrian Chiarella directed and written genre feature are at 94% certified fresh. Starring Joe Bird, Stacy Clausen and Mia Wasikowska, two teenage boys must escape a violent entity that takes the form of the person they desire most – each other. The comp here is IFC’s horror pic Late Night With the Devil which opened to $2.8M back in late March 2024.
Meanwhile, Universal and Amblin’s Steven Spielberg directed Disclosure Day hopes to hold -55% in its second weekend with around $20M. The Emily Blunt, Colin Firth, Colman Domingo, Josh O’Connor, aliens ensemble led Monday with $4.2M and a four-day running cume of $48.7M.
Joe Bird in ‘Levictus’
Ben Saunders/Sundance Institute
