In what is a box office no-brainer, Illumination/Nintendo/Universal’s Super Mario Galaxy Movie is headed for a $160M+ 5-day opening over the Easter stretch. And that’s being conservative. No April Fools joke: the movie opens on April 1.
The heat on tracking is better than the 2023 movie, which did a 5-day of $204.6M and 3-day of $146.3M in what was the second best ever domestic opening for a movie over Easter after 2016’s Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166M). Among all April U.S./Canada openings, Super Mario Bros was the fifth best in a month that will forever be dominated by Avengers: Endgame ($357.1M). It won’t be alarming if Super Mario Galaxy debuts to a more mushroomed number than its first chapter which received an A CinemaScore.
Super Mario Galaxy Movie, which is clearly based on the videogame, is best with guys under 25 in first choice, but strong across the board with an overall first choice number that’s above Lilo & Stich ($182.6M opening), A Minecraft Movie ($162.8M) and the first Super Mario Bros movie. Unaided awareness (the column which indicates moviegoers are aware the pic is coming out without being prompted by a pollster) is as strong as Lilo & Stitch and the first Mario Bros animated pic and well ahead of A Minecraft Movie. Pic’s blurb: Mario ventures into space, exploring cosmic worlds and tackling galactic challenges far from the familiar Mushroom Kingdom.
Also hitting tracking is the A24 Zendaya and Robert Pattinson rom-com, The Drama, which is tracking around $15M, which was what the former’s non-IP Challengers opened to. First choice and unaided awareness is best with women under 25. The Kristoffer Borgli directed movie follows a happily engaged couple who is put to the test when an unexpected turn sends their wedding week off the rails.
